Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 357 at 19:50 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 357 HNL 19:50 → SLC 06:06 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AS 715 HNL 12:48 → SLC 22:43 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 357 Delta Flight history →	HNL 19:50	SLC 06:06	9%	5%	0.9%	84%
AS 554 Alaska	HNL 12:09	SLC 22:20	21%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 715 Alaska	HNL 12:48	SLC 22:43	23%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON