Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1882 at 11:13 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1882 HNL 11:13 → SMF 19:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 820 HNL 12:10 → SMF 20:17 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1882 Southwest	HNL 11:13	SMF 19:27	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1994 Southwest	HNL 12:09	SMF 20:14	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 820 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:10	SMF 20:17	26%	5%	0.7%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 11:35 → KOA 12:37AS 1098	1h 09m Kailua/Kona	KOA 13:46 → SMF 22:05AS 843	7h 30m	90%	80%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:24 → OGG 12:07AS 1086	1h 45m Kahului	OGG 13:52 → SMF 22:01AS 960	7h 37m	94%	78%
United Details →	HNL 09:35 → SFO 17:57UA 1176	1h 07m San Francisco	SFO 19:04 → SMF 19:53UA 1862	7h 18m	92%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON