Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2557 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13%.

Safest bet that day DL 2557 HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1195 HOU 14:23 → ATL 17:34 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2557 Delta Flight history →	HOU 06:00	ATL 09:05	4%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1509 Delta Flight history →	HOU 10:40	ATL 13:46	7%	2%	0.7%	88%
WN 1888 Southwest	HOU 11:18	ATL 14:25	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2381 Delta Flight history →	HOU 17:17	ATL 20:32	13%	3%	0.6%	77%
WN 2217 Southwest	HOU 18:34	ATL 21:48	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1700 Southwest	HOU 14:42	ATL 17:49	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1195 Delta Flight history →	HOU 14:23	ATL 17:34	16%	4%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON