tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 580 at 14:39, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 580 Southwest HOU 14:39 BHM 16:27 8% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017 5h 10m 99% 94%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 06:00 → DAL 07:05WN 1636 2h 24m Dallas DAL 09:29 → BHM 11:15WN 3256 5h 15m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484 5h 42m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034 5h 45m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:40 → DFW 11:08AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:01 → BHM 14:57AA 3884 · flown by Envoy 5h 17m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:23 → ATL 17:34DL 1195 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202 5h 35m 97% 88%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 17:38 → DAL 19:02WN 46 2h 43m Dallas DAL 21:45 → BHM 23:29WN 4029 5h 51m 99% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON