Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Charleston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107	5h 00m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850	6h 09m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 17:44 → CHS 18:59DL 3179	7h 19m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	HOU 11:00 → DAL 12:10WN 20	3h 19m Dallas	DAL 15:29 → CHS 18:59WN 4004	6h 59m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:23 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 19:33 → CHS 20:49DL 2493	5h 26m	94%	82%
American Details →	HOU 09:40 → DFW 11:08AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:28 → CHS 16:10AA 2166	5h 30m	91%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON