Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 14 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 8507 HOU 06:30 → DAL 07:49 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 50 HOU 18:34 → DAL 19:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 8507 Southwest	HOU 06:30	DAL 07:49	2%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 1636 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 06:00	DAL 07:05	3%	1%	1.2%	95%
WN 4 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:00	DAL 08:10	3%	1%	1.2%	94%
WN 10 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:30	DAL 09:40	4%	1%	1.1%	97%
WN 14 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 09:30	DAL 10:35	5%	1%	1.1%	88%
WN 18 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 10:07	DAL 11:15	5%	1%	1.1%	82%
WN 54 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 21:48	DAL 23:04	7%	2%	0.9%	72%
WN 20 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:00	DAL 12:10	7%	1%	1.5%	86%
WN 46 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:38	DAL 19:02	8%	3%	1.0%	73%
WN 38 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:30	DAL 16:40	8%	2%	1.2%	70%
WN 1016 Southwest	HOU 17:40	DAL 19:04	8%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 26 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:30	DAL 13:40	8%	2%	1.2%	85%
WN 42 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 16:34	DAL 17:42	8%	2%	1.1%	83%
WN 50 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:34	DAL 19:43	11%	2%	1.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON