Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: MQ 3729 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3729 HOU 06:08 → DFW 07:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4222 HOU 18:35 → DFW 19:51 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3729 Envoy	HOU 06:08	DFW 07:39	7%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HOU 09:40	DFW 11:08	9%	4%	1.0%	94%
OO 4924 SkyWest	HOU 11:32	DFW 13:05	15%	9%	1.5%	no record
MQ 4015 Envoy	HOU 16:15	DFW 17:31	21%	4%	1.1%	no record
MQ 4222 Envoy	HOU 18:35	DFW 19:51	24%	4%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON