Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4852 at 18:49, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4852 Southwest	HOU 18:49	ECP 20:40	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	4h 48m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	6h 20m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	5h 32m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:23 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → ECP 19:20DL 3053	4h 57m	93%	86%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:30 → DAL 13:40WN 26	3h 12m Dallas	DAL 16:52 → ECP 18:50WN 311	6h 20m	99%	83%
American Details →	HOU 09:40 → DFW 11:08AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:24 → ECP 14:37AA 2052	4h 57m	92%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON