tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 5h 21m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:54DL 2527 5h 37m 91% 69%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340 6h 13m 97% 65%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:40 → DFW 11:08AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:30 → EWR 19:10AA 2861 8h 30m 100% 62%
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:23 → ATL 17:34DL 1195 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498 5h 31m 84% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:40 → DFW 11:08AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:58 → EWR 16:15AA 813 5h 35m 67% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON