Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4422 at 18:25, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4422 Southwest	HOU 18:25	MIA 21:52	19%	6%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 02m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:30 → DAL 10:35WN 14	2h 23m Dallas	DAL 12:58 → MIA 16:50WN 3346	6h 20m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 38m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 17:02 → MIA 19:01DL 719	7h 21m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:23 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	6h 36m	95%	74%
American Details →	HOU 09:40 → DFW 11:08AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:48 → MIA 16:53AA 2461	6h 13m	95%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON