Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894	6h 34m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	6h 36m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738	6h 32m	99%	83%
American Details →	HOU 09:40 → DFW 11:08AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988	6h 11m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:23 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 19:38 → ORD 20:54DL 1139	6h 31m	96%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON