Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	5h 42m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097	7h 14m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:23 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → RDU 22:00DL 3244	6h 37m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RDU 00:10 +1DL 2938	5h 53m	96%	85%
Southwest Details →	HOU 11:00 → DAL 12:10WN 20	3h 19m Dallas	DAL 15:29 → RDU 19:17WN 1353	7h 17m	100%	81%
American Details →	HOU 09:40 → DFW 11:08AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:22 → RDU 16:11AA 2091	5h 31m	91%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON