Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Louisville on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	4h 51m	98%	90%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:30 → DAL 10:35WN 14	2h 49m Dallas	DAL 13:24 → SDF 16:34WN 3563	6h 04m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624	6h 09m	97%	86%
American Details →	HOU 09:40 → DFW 11:08AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:14 → SDF 17:37AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	6h 57m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:23 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → SDF 21:36DL 2842	6h 13m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126	6h 09m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON