Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 2690 Southwest	HOU 09:34	SEA 12:05	19%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 50m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 25m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:00 → DAL 07:05WN 1636	1h 52m Dallas	DAL 08:57 → SEA 11:02WN 519	7h 02m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	8h 42m	92%	78%
American Details →	HOU 09:40 → DFW 11:08AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:33 → SEA 16:47AA 727	9h 07m	100%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON