Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 06:00 → DAL 07:05WN 1636	2h 09m Dallas	DAL 09:14 → SFO 10:46WN 4542	6h 46m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	54m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672	7h 55m	95%	87%
American Details →	HOU 09:40 → DFW 11:08AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:19 → SFO 15:12AA 2325	7h 32m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON