Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	3h 54m Dallas	DAL 12:04 → SJC 13:37WN 4671	8h 37m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:23 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	10h 26m	97%	86%
American Details →	HOU 09:40 → DFW 11:08AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:04 → SJC 13:54AA 2834	6h 14m	91%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON