Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2031 at 09:29, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2031 Southwest	HOU 09:29	SLC 11:29	7%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 50m	99%	91%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	2h 27m Dallas	DAL 10:37 → SLC 12:17WN 1255	6h 17m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	7h 38m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	8h 09m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:23 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37DL 660	8h 14m	94%	80%
American Details →	HOU 09:40 → DFW 11:08AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:11 → SLC 16:05AA 1456	7h 25m	100%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON