Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 08:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 08:30 → DAL 09:40WN 10	2h 56m Dallas	DAL 12:36 → SNA 13:51WN 1344	7h 21m	99%	87%
American Details →	HOU 09:40 → DFW 11:08AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:23 → SNA 15:46AA 2659	8h 06m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:23 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826	10h 02m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012	10h 20m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	8h 31m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON