Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2024 Southwest	HOU 11:24	TPA 14:43	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2048 Southwest	HOU 18:16	TPA 21:35	14%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	2h 36m Dallas	DAL 10:46 → TPA 14:16WN 2812	6h 16m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099	5h 39m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	6h 12m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	5h 18m	97%	83%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:30 → DAL 10:35WN 14	3h 57m Dallas	DAL 14:32 → TPA 18:02WN 3991	7h 32m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:23 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 19:57 → TPA 21:30DL 3135	6h 07m	96%	80%
Southwest Details →	HOU 15:30 → DAL 16:40WN 38	2h 31m Dallas	DAL 19:11 → TPA 22:38WN 4883	6h 08m	98%	78%
American Details →	HOU 09:40 → DFW 11:08AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:49 → TPA 16:35AA 1957	5h 55m	95%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON