Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 10:43 → VPS 11:01DL 2048	5h 01m	99%	93%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:00 → DAL 07:05WN 1636	2h 16m Dallas	DAL 09:21 → VPS 11:19WN 3102	5h 19m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 12m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170	5h 20m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:23 → ATL 17:33DL 1195	55m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	4h 19m	88%	81%
American Details →	HOU 09:36 → DFW 11:04AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:13 → VPS 15:20AA 2501	5h 44m	96%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON