Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 149 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 149 HOU 06:56 → MDW 09:32 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2775 IAH 15:27 → ORD 18:06 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 149 Southwest	HOU 06:56	MDW 09:32	5%	1%	0.9%	no record
UA 1044 United Flight history →	IAH 05:04	ORD 07:59	5%	3%	0.9%	97%
UA 2616 United Flight history →	IAH 06:10	ORD 09:05	8%	3%	0.9%	88%
WN 256 Southwest	HOU 09:42	MDW 12:18	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 1617 United Flight history →	IAH 08:05	ORD 11:01	9%	4%	0.8%	92%
UA 2182 United Flight history →	IAH 07:24	ORD 10:20	10%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 3106 American Flight history →	IAH 06:13	ORD 09:07	12%	5%	1.4%	89%
UA 1752 United Flight history →	IAH 22:08	ORD 00:45	12%	5%	0.6%	71%
WN 2278 Southwest	HOU 20:58	MDW 23:27	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2124 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	ORD 12:29	15%	5%	0.8%	86%
AA 1517 American	IAH 08:57	ORD 11:53	15%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 1966 Southwest	HOU 14:45	MDW 17:19	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 265 Southwest	HOU 16:42	MDW 19:16	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1691 United	IAH 11:55	ORD 14:40	18%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 2504 American Flight history →	IAH 11:02	ORD 13:53	19%	9%	1.2%	62%
UA 787 United Flight history →	IAH 20:25	ORD 23:15	20%	8%	0.6%	72%
UA 2197 United Flight history →	IAH 18:44	ORD 21:40	24%	11%	0.6%	69%
F9 1882 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 11:20	ORD 14:17	24%	11%	1.6%	64%
UA 1299 United	IAH 13:39	ORD 16:19	25%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 3322 American Flight history →	IAH 14:10	ORD 17:07	25%	12%	1.6%	85%
UA 2786 United	IAH 17:10	ORD 19:54	25%	11%	0.7%	no record
AA 2243 American	IAH 18:43	ORD 21:38	26%	13%	1.6%	no record
AA 2302 American	IAH 17:01	ORD 20:04	27%	13%	1.5%	no record
UA 2775 United	IAH 15:27	ORD 18:06	30%	12%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON