Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 36 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 8507 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 8507 HOU 06:30 → DAL 07:49 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2158 IAH 16:59 → DFW 18:13 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 8507 Southwest	HOU 06:30	DAL 07:49	2%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 1636 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 06:00	DAL 07:05	3%	1%	1.2%	95%
WN 4 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:00	DAL 08:10	3%	1%	1.2%	94%
WN 10 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:30	DAL 09:40	4%	1%	1.1%	97%
AA 2551 American Flight history →	IAH 05:02	DFW 06:19	5%	4%	0.8%	90%
WN 14 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 09:30	DAL 10:35	5%	1%	1.1%	88%
WN 18 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 10:07	DAL 11:15	5%	1%	1.1%	82%
AA 700 American Flight history →	IAH 06:02	DFW 07:28	6%	4%	0.8%	90%
WN 54 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 21:48	DAL 23:04	7%	2%	0.9%	72%
WN 20 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:00	DAL 12:10	7%	1%	1.5%	86%
MQ 3729 Envoy	HOU 06:08	DFW 07:39	7%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 46 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:38	DAL 19:02	8%	3%	1.0%	73%
WN 38 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:30	DAL 16:40	8%	2%	1.2%	70%
WN 1016 Southwest	HOU 17:40	DAL 19:04	8%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 26 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:30	DAL 13:40	8%	2%	1.2%	85%
WN 42 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 16:34	DAL 17:42	8%	2%	1.1%	83%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	IAH 09:08	DFW 10:37	9%	3%	0.8%	81%
AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HOU 09:40	DFW 11:08	9%	4%	1.0%	94%
UA 358 United Flight history →	IAH 07:23	DFW 08:50	10%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 3026 American Flight history →	IAH 07:02	DFW 08:33	10%	5%	0.7%	70%
MQ 3477 Envoy	IAH 12:11	DFW 13:36	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 50 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:34	DAL 19:43	11%	2%	1.0%	78%
UA 1183 United Flight history →	IAH 21:37	DFW 22:59	13%	5%	0.6%	62%
AA 1407 American Flight history →	IAH 10:20	DFW 11:43	13%	6%	0.7%	86%
UA 1388 United Flight history →	IAH 14:46	DFW 16:16	15%	6%	0.6%	77%
OO 4924 SkyWest	HOU 11:32	DFW 13:05	15%	9%	1.5%	no record
UA 1949 United Flight history →	IAH 19:59	DFW 21:25	16%	7%	0.6%	71%
AA 1397 American	IAH 14:10	DFW 15:35	16%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1599 United	IAH 16:59	DFW 18:23	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4015 Envoy	HOU 16:15	DFW 17:31	21%	4%	1.1%	no record
OH 5576 PSA	IAH 16:09	DFW 17:30	21%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 1535 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DFW 19:31	21%	7%	0.6%	71%
OH 5299 PSA	IAH 18:55	DFW 20:16	24%	6%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4222 Envoy	HOU 18:35	DFW 19:51	24%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 2158 American	IAH 16:59	DFW 18:13	25%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 4024 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:05	DFW 13:34	20%	11%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON