Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2261 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2261 IAH 08:00 → FLL 11:52 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2180 IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2261 United Flight history →	IAH 08:00	FLL 11:52	7%	3%	0.7%	94%
AA 2144 American Flight history →	IAH 05:31	MIA 09:10	7%	3%	0.8%	93%
UA 2753 United	IAH 07:57	MIA 11:47	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2670 United Flight history →	IAH 10:06	FLL 13:37	13%	4%	0.7%	83%
UA 1982 United Flight history →	IAH 12:04	FLL 15:47	13%	4%	0.7%	84%
UA 277 United Flight history →	IAH 16:47	FLL 20:34	15%	5%	0.7%	85%
WN 1670 Southwest	HOU 12:14	FLL 15:41	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1956 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	FLL 22:04	16%	6%	0.7%	77%
UA 410 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	MIA 15:47	16%	5%	0.8%	84%
F9 1496 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 08:20	FLL 12:01	17%	6%	1.2%	62%
WN 4230 Southwest	HOU 18:16	FLL 21:43	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1424 United	IAH 14:39	FLL 18:10	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1347 American Flight history →	IAH 12:02	MIA 15:47	18%	5%	1.0%	87%
WN 4422 Southwest	HOU 18:25	MIA 21:52	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
B6 2380 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 07:24	FLL 10:47	20%	5%	1.1%	30%
AA 678 American Flight history →	IAH 17:02	MIA 20:51	24%	8%	1.1%	57%
UA 1829 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	MIA 21:56	26%	8%	0.9%	78%
B6 2180 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 16:42	FLL 20:05	26%	11%	1.1%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON