Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1900 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1900 HOU 06:05 → BWI 10:12 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3068 IAH 16:21 → BWI 20:36 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1900 Southwest	HOU 06:05	BWI 10:12	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4685 Southwest	HOU 07:56	BWI 12:10	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1549 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	IAD 11:28	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 4229 Southwest	HOU 08:31	DCA 12:43	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 512 United Flight history →	IAH 07:47	DCA 12:04	9%	3%	0.6%	95%
WN 840 Southwest	HOU 11:25	BWI 15:39	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
OH 5463 PSA	IAH 07:10	DCA 11:33	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 1902 Southwest	HOU 15:51	BWI 20:05	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1720 United Flight history →	IAH 12:16	BWI 16:30	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 2224 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	DCA 23:59	12%	5%	0.6%	70%
UA 592 United	IAH 17:09	BWI 21:23	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 654 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	DCA 16:03	14%	6%	0.6%	75%
UA 2366 United Flight history →	IAH 12:13	IAD 16:30	15%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 2388 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	IAD 20:46	16%	5%	0.6%	70%
UA 1968 United	IAH 20:23	IAD 00:40	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 625 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	DCA 18:31	16%	6%	0.6%	69%
UA 1178 United	IAH 14:54	IAD 19:12	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
OH 5496 PSA	IAH 10:37	DCA 14:59	16%	6%	1.2%	no record
UA 1627 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DCA 22:15	17%	6%	0.6%	66%
WN 1911 Southwest	HOU 14:09	DCA 18:18	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 235 United	IAH 16:59	DCA 21:16	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
OH 5589 PSA	IAH 16:54	DCA 21:18	17%	9%	1.7%	no record
UA 1373 United Flight history →	IAH 18:32	IAD 22:43	19%	5%	0.6%	73%
WN 4286 Southwest	HOU 18:17	DCA 22:25	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 3068 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:21	BWI 20:36	26%	8%	1.1%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON