Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5431 HPN 10:59 → CLT 12:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 5070 HPN 18:59 → CLT 21:05 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5431 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HPN 10:59	CLT 12:56	7%	3%	1.2%	81%
AA 5403 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HPN 07:55	CLT 09:57	7%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 5180 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HPN 13:43	CLT 15:50	11%	4%	0.9%	74%
AA 5070 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HPN 18:59	CLT 21:05	16%	6%	1.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON