Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4645 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 12:34	DTW 14:17	9%	3%	0.8%	71%
DL 4643 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 17:15	DTW 18:58	13%	4%	0.8%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	HPN 06:24 → ORD 08:05AA 3751 · flown by Envoy	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 10:02 → DTW 12:39AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	6h 15m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 27m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:25 → ATL 12:42DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	7h 02m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:49 → ATL 15:12DL 2973	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	7h 24m	99%	88%
American Details →	HPN 16:39 → ORD 18:29AA 3808 · flown by Envoy	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 21:16 → DTW 23:51AA 4012 · flown by Envoy	7h 12m	97%	87%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 12:30 → DTW 14:22AA 1683	6h 27m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	HPN 15:23 → MSP 17:11DL 4693 · flown by Endeavor	2h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 19:46 → DTW 22:32DL 1484	7h 09m	97%	84%
American Details →	HPN 11:00 → CLT 12:57AA 5431 · flown by PSA	2h 39m Charlotte	CLT 15:36 → DTW 17:25AA 1134	6h 25m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON