Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: B6 2695 at 08:30, 13%.

Safest bet that day B6 2695 HPN 08:30 → MCO 11:19 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 595 HPN 14:59 → MCO 17:48 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 2695 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 08:30	MCO 11:19	13%	4%	2.1%	89%
B6 195 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 20:52	MCO 23:40	25%	13%	2.2%	68%
B6 595 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 14:59	MCO 17:48	33%	12%	4.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON