Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 12:49, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 12:49 → ATL 15:11DL 2973	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:30DL 1861	9h 41m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	HPN 05:55 → ATL 08:17DL 2379	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:12 → SJU 13:56DL 1882	8h 01m	97%	88%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783	6h 55m	94%	82%
JetBlue Details →	HPN 08:30 → MCO 11:19B6 2695	1h 14m Orlando	MCO 12:33 → SJU 15:39B6 1133	7h 09m	91%	63%
JetBlue Details →	HPN 14:59 → MCO 17:48B6 595	1h 14m Orlando	MCO 19:02 → SJU 22:07B6 433	7h 08m	77%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON