Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, B6 1447 at 06:19, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


B6 1447 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 06:19	TPA 09:10	8%	3%	1.8%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 05:59 → ATL 08:12DL 2379	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	5h 30m	97%	85%
American Details →	HPN 06:30 → DCA 07:50AA 5678 · flown by PSA	2h 22m Washington	DCA 10:12 → TPA 12:50AA 3126	6h 20m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:25 → ATL 12:42DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	6h 33m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:49 → ATL 15:11DL 2973	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457	7h 05m	99%	83%
American Details →	HPN 05:53 → ORD 07:12AA 3751 · flown by Envoy	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 08:12 → TPA 12:14AA 2920	6h 21m	93%	81%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	2h 34m Charlotte	CLT 12:31 → TPA 14:24AA 2915	6h 29m	96%	79%
American Details →	HPN 10:59 → CLT 12:56AA 5431 · flown by PSA	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 14:02 → TPA 15:52AA 1982	4h 53m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	HPN 15:23 → MSP 17:11DL 4693 · flown by Endeavor	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 18:15 → TPA 22:26DL 2385	7h 03m	88%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON