Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2556 HSV 05:30 → ATL 07:31 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 99% on time Riskiest DL 3026 HSV 16:20 → ATL 18:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2556 Delta Flight history →	HSV 05:30	ATL 07:31	3%	2%	0.6%	99%
DL 3009 Delta Flight history →	HSV 07:12	ATL 09:17	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 1708 Delta Flight history →	HSV 09:50	ATL 11:49	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 3065 Delta	HSV 18:25	ATL 20:32	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2182 Delta Flight history →	HSV 12:34	ATL 14:41	6%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 3026 Delta Flight history →	HSV 16:20	ATL 18:25	7%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 4760 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 14:50	ATL 16:57	44%	24%	0.0%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON