Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 5393 at 08:32 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 5393 HSV 08:32 → CLT 11:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest PT 6005 HSV 17:47 → CLT 20:17 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5393 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 08:32	CLT 11:04	7%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 5443 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 13:20	CLT 15:52	10%	3%	0.8%	81%
AA 6071 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	HSV 06:57	CLT 09:27	11%	3%	1.2%	81%
AA 5810 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	HSV 10:07	CLT 12:37	14%	3%	0.9%	77%
PT 6005 Piedmont	HSV 17:47	CLT 20:17	18%	3%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON