Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3634 HSV 07:08 → DFW 09:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5383 HSV 14:22 → DFW 16:23 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3634 Envoy	HSV 07:08	DFW 09:25	13%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 3476 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 09:48	DFW 11:53	13%	3%	1.0%	89%
OH 5141 PSA	HSV 05:05	DFW 06:57	15%	7%	2.2%	no record
OO 6302 SkyWest	HSV 12:16	DFW 14:21	21%	7%	1.1%	no record
MQ 3504 Envoy	HSV 16:34	DFW 18:41	21%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 5383 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 14:22	DFW 16:23	21%	6%	1.9%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON