tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Albuquerque on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2070 United IAD 17:47 ABQ 20:11 15% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 2 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03UA 395 3h 34m Denver DEN 21:37 → ABQ 23:08UA 5880 · flown by SkyWest 9h 12m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:05 → ABQ 10:12DL 1004 6h 12m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109 7h 10m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:55 → ABQ 11:56AA 3586 · flown by Envoy 7h 42m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 28m Denver DEN 13:33 → ABQ 14:59UA 1594 6h 46m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 15m San Francisco SFO 18:42 → ABQ 22:17UA 5289 · flown by SkyWest 11h 37m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 20:47 → ABQ 22:02DL 1531 9h 00m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 2h 51m Denver DEN 19:20 → ABQ 20:44UA 484 8h 09m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 46m San Francisco SFO 12:05 → ABQ 15:40UA 1597 9h 05m 72% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON