Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via O'Hare, leaving 13:15, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331	1h 41m Chicago	ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841	10h 39m	96%	84%
United Details →	IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126	2h 39m Denver	DEN 19:08 → ANC 22:57UA 280	12h 22m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:00 → SEA 09:45DL 1015	3h 55m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	13h 25m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	50m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → ANC 16:57DL 411	9h 22m	91%	78%
Alaska Details →	IAD 08:59 → SEA 11:35AS 375	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 14:34 → ANC 17:21AS 1436	12h 22m	100%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	IAD 18:14 → SEA 21:09AS 737	54m Seattle	SEA 22:03 → ANC 00:50 +1AS 1490	10h 36m	75%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON