Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1562 IAD 08:17 → BDL 09:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YV 4029 IAD 12:58 → BDL 14:34 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1562 United	IAD 08:17	BDL 09:44	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
YX 3610 Republic	IAD 17:35	BDL 19:00	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 444 United Flight history →	IAD 22:25	BDL 23:59	11%	3%	0.5%	83%
YV 4029 Mesa	IAD 12:58	BDL 14:34	12%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON