Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1709 United Flight history →	IAD 12:45	CLE 14:06	10%	4%	0.7%	84%
UA 2131 United Flight history →	IAD 22:15	CLE 23:44	12%	6%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978	5h 32m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 15:36 → CLE 18:35DL 1118	7h 00m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545	6h 53m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 20:40 → CLE 22:35DL 1339	7h 33m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → CLE 00:49 +1DL 1320	7h 03m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:41DL 1350	6h 04m	97%	78%
American Details →	IAD 18:14 → CLT 19:41AA 5447 · flown by PSA	3h 09m Charlotte	CLT 22:50 → CLE 00:29 +1AA 2260	6h 15m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → CLE 09:37DL 5392 · flown by Endeavor	3h 37m	92%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON