Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5151 IAD 11:26 → CLT 12:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5447 IAD 18:14 → CLT 19:41 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5151 PSA	IAD 11:26	CLT 12:59	10%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 3001 American	IAD 06:28	CLT 07:53	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1896 American	IAD 07:58	CLT 09:29	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5154 PSA	IAD 12:22	CLT 13:49	13%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 5447 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAD 18:14	CLT 19:41	19%	7%	1.9%	73%
UA 6239 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:43	CLT 14:12	22%	7%	1.4%	78%
UA 6209 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:20	CLT 19:02	27%	9%	5.4%	73%
UA 6234 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:24	CLT 23:59	32%	9%	3.0%	68%
UA 4063 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:15	CLT 09:45	38%	2%	0.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON