Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1825 at 08:21 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 41%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1825 United Flight history →	IAD 08:21	FLL 11:12	11%	3%	0.8%	89%
F9 2959 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 18:09	FLL 20:52	41%	11%	1.7%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512	6h 23m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341	6h 00m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	57m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673	7h 25m	92%	83%
United Details →	IAD 08:25 → EWR 09:51UA 2396	2h 07m Newark	EWR 11:58 → FLL 15:14UA 2759	6h 49m	99%	82%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:30 → FLL 14:39AA 1390	8h 25m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413	5h 20m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 19:58 → FLL 21:56DL 1489	6h 54m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → FLL 19:43DL 1670	7h 06m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON