Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 4349 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAD 13:03	GSO 14:30	14%	3%	0.8%	81%
UA 4849 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAD 22:31	GSO 23:59	14%	3%	0.8%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → GSO 11:34DL 3052	5h 34m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → GSO 15:30DL 2539	7h 03m	99%	91%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:08 → GSO 13:56AA 3886 · flown by Envoy	7h 42m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884	3h 16m Detroit	DTW 16:03 → GSO 17:47DL 5512 · flown by Endeavor	6h 37m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 31m Detroit	DTW 09:06 → GSO 10:48DL 4966 · flown by Endeavor	4h 48m	95%	89%
United Details →	IAD 08:25 → EWR 09:51UA 2396	2h 24m Newark	EWR 12:15 → GSO 14:11UA 4509 · flown by GoJet	5h 46m	99%	88%
United Details →	IAD 12:35 → EWR 14:01UA 1498	2h 29m Newark	EWR 16:30 → GSO 18:26UA 3576 · flown by Republic	5h 51m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 19:36 → GSO 20:56DL 1617	5h 54m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON