tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:21 am at Dulles)
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Detroit DTW 10:31 → HNL 13:59DL 385 13h 59m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 13h 20m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:08 → SLC 08:40DL 432 3h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 14h 11m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12UA 1095 1h 33m San Francisco SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380 12h 50m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:18 → MSP 09:02DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 10:21 → HNL 13:46DL 372 12h 28m 92% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 33m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 15h 03m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:10 → LAX 15:42UA 1689 1h 23m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44UA 1170 12h 34m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:28 → LAX 11:02UA 1734 2h 10m Los Angeles LAX 13:12 → HNL 16:02UA 1224 13h 34m 96% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON