Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1323 at 09:04 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1323 IAD 09:04 → LAS 11:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4277 IAD 06:01 → LAS 08:06 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1323 United Flight history →	IAD 09:04	LAS 11:12	6%	2%	0.5%	95%
UA 2156 United Flight history →	IAD 13:00	LAS 15:09	9%	2%	0.5%	91%
UA 2209 United	IAD 18:07	LAS 20:16	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 4277 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 06:01	LAS 08:06	18%	5%	0.6%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 31m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → LAS 14:49DL 659	7h 28m	97%	90%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 27m Denver	DEN 13:32 → LAS 14:41UA 493	7h 28m	98%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON