Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1580 at 09:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 1580 IAD 09:15 → MCO 11:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2887 IAD 17:44 → MCO 19:56 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1580 Delta	IAD 09:15	MCO 11:27	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 379 United Flight history →	IAD 08:45	MCO 11:08	7%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 2206 United Flight history →	IAD 12:35	MCO 14:58	10%	4%	0.7%	86%
F9 4355 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 11:11	MCO 13:41	11%	6%	1.2%	68%
UA 689 United Flight history →	IAD 22:33	MCO 01:01	12%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 2463 United Flight history →	IAD 17:22	MCO 19:45	17%	7%	0.7%	71%
UA 2861 United	IAD 15:41	MCO 17:54	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 2887 Delta	IAD 17:44	MCO 19:56	21%	6%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON