tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:27, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching New Orleans on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 251 United Flight history → IAD 18:07 MSY 19:58 10% 3% 0.5% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 37m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 6h 50m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:25 → EWR 09:51UA 2396 2h 42m Newark EWR 12:33 → MSY 14:44UA 2468 7h 19m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 6h 36m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 17:57 → MSY 18:34DL 678 6h 57m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 22m Denver DEN 13:27 → MSY 17:15UA 250 8h 02m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 1h 22m Chicago ORD 10:58 → MSY 13:26UA 1532 6h 11m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → MSY 23:43DL 2224 6h 57m 98% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON