tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:16 → ONT 12:16DL 1173 8h 01m 97% 92%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 3h 22m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552 10h 46m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:08 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 10h 18m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 40m San Francisco SFO 19:07 → ONT 20:42UA 2478 11h 02m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 2h 51m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 9h 07m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 19:01 → ONT 20:49DL 2891 8h 47m 93% 75%
AmericanDetails → IAD 16:57 → DFW 19:20AA 524 1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:19 → ONT 22:39AA 1695 8h 42m 94% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON