Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 2677 at 22:35, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2677 IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2677 United Flight history →	IAD 22:35	ORF 23:44	16%	5%	0.7%	75%
UA 6313 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 13:05	ORF 14:17	8%	5%	0.0%	92%
UA 4308 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:45	ORF 18:59	35%	13%	4.2%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON