Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 780 United Flight history →	IAD 17:40	PDX 20:19	21%	7%	0.6%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	3h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 10:58 → PDX 12:39DL 1661	9h 39m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	2h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	9h 00m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	7h 55m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 58m	99%	89%
United Details →	IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862	3h 12m San Francisco	SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413	10h 57m	98%	85%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	3h 55m Denver	DEN 16:00 → PDX 17:44UA 1337	10h 31m	98%	85%
United Details →	IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434	3h 31m San Francisco	SFO 18:58 → PDX 20:47UA 1227	11h 07m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	9h 19m	98%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497	48m Chicago	ORD 19:38 → PDX 21:57UA 2243	7h 15m	56%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON