tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 10:13, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 709 United Flight history → IAD 08:52 PHX 10:50 9% 2% 0.5% 99%
UA 1938 United Flight history → IAD 17:50 PHX 19:46 16% 4% 0.5% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 3h 39m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 9h 46m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 9h 03m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 3h 30m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 9h 22m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 8h 51m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 7h 57m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 1h 36m Chicago ORD 11:12 → PHX 13:05UA 2164 7h 50m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 7h 34m 95% 87%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:47 → PHX 10:54AA 2315 7h 40m 96% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831 1h 06m Newark EWR 20:16 → PHX 22:27UA 2321 7h 45m 70% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON