tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, YX 3517 at 17:20, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3517 Republic IAD 17:20 PIT 18:33 8% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 6119 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 08:30 PIT 09:40 12% 5% 0.0% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 3h 04m Chicago ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic 7h 08m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 7h 23m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 6h 52m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568 6h 47m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:49DL 3122 6h 12m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:42 → PIT 14:41AA 2664 8h 27m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:31 → ORD 11:53UA 1252 2h 32m Chicago ORD 14:25 → PIT 17:10UA 1349 6h 39m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 19:58 → PIT 21:51DL 2583 6h 49m 98% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON