Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3548 IAD 08:27 → PWM 10:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest YX 3538 IAD 17:41 → PWM 19:48 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3548 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 08:27	PWM 10:27	5%	2%	0.9%	97%
YX 3709 Republic	IAD 12:55	PWM 15:02	6%	3%	1.1%	no record
UA 3459 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 22:07	PWM 00:05	8%	4%	1.2%	85%
YX 3538 Republic	IAD 17:41	PWM 19:48	12%	5%	1.5%	no record
UA 4487 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:20	PWM 10:04	11%	0%	10.0%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON