Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 3492 at 12:58 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day YX 3492 IAD 12:58 → RDU 14:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1322 IAD 18:38 → RDU 19:49 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3492 Republic	IAD 12:58	RDU 14:30	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 203 United	IAD 08:21	RDU 09:43	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2382 United Flight history →	IAD 22:25	RDU 23:44	13%	5%	0.7%	76%
UA 1322 United Flight history →	IAD 18:38	RDU 19:49	18%	5%	0.7%	79%
UA 4055 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:50	RDU 14:08	20%	10%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON